What Is a Population Report?

A PSA population report shows the total number of cards graded and the distribution across grades (PSA 1-10) for every card in their registry. When PSA has graded 5,000 copies of a given card and only 120 are PSA 10, that 2.4% gem rate tells you something critical about scarcity — and scarcity, combined with demand, drives price.

Population data is the supply side of the pricing equation. Combined with demand data (sales volume, collector interest, character popularity), it explains why some cards command extreme premiums in high grades while others plateau despite low populations. Understanding population dynamics is essential for anyone using our EV model to make grading and investing decisions.

Excellent Cards tracks population data across our database of 106,239 cards, incorporating PSA and CGC population figures into our grading analysis. Here is how to interpret that data.

How to Read Pop Reports

PSA publishes population reports at psacard.com/pop. For any Pokemon card, you will find:

  • Total population: How many copies have been graded across all grades. Higher total pop means more supply in the graded market. A card with a total pop of 50 is a different proposition than one with 5,000 — the latter has an established market, the former may have unreliable price data due to thin trading.
  • Grade distribution: The count at each grade from PSA 1 to PSA 10. Most distributions skew toward PSA 7-9 for vintage cards and PSA 9-10 for modern. The shape of this distribution tells you about the card's condition rarity at each grade level.
  • PSA 10 population: The specific count of Gem Mint copies. This is the number that matters most for high-end pricing. A PSA 10 with only 5 known copies commands a fundamentally different premium than one with 500.
  • Gem rate: PSA 10 count divided by total population. This percentage tells you how hard it is to achieve a 10 for that specific card, which directly informs the probability estimate in your EV calculation.
  • Grade concentration: Where do most copies cluster? If 80% of submissions are PSA 9-10, the card is easy to grade well and the premium for PSA 10 over PSA 9 will be moderate. If 80% are PSA 5-8, condition scarcity at PSA 10 is real and the premium is steep.

Gem Rates: What the Numbers Mean

Gem rates vary dramatically by era, set, and even specific card. Understanding the range helps you calibrate expectations and estimate probabilities more accurately:

  • Under 5% gem rate: Extremely difficult to achieve PSA 10. Typical for WOTC-era holos, especially Base Set 1st Edition where cards are 25+ years old and most surviving copies have some wear. These cards command massive premiums in PSA 10 because supply is genuinely scarce. A 3% gem rate means that for every 100 submissions, only 3 come back as PSA 10.
  • 5-15% gem rate: Challenging but achievable with careful self-assessment. Common for mid-vintage (e-Card, ex era) and high-demand WOTC cards that were more carefully preserved. The premium for PSA 10 over PSA 9 is typically 3-8x in this range.
  • 15-30% gem rate: Moderate difficulty. Typical for Diamond & Pearl through Black & White era cards. These cards are old enough to have some condition rarity but new enough that mint copies survive. Grading is still profitable for cards with strong demand, but the PSA 10 premium is lower than vintage.
  • 30-60% gem rate: Achievable for careful graders working with pack-fresh cards. Typical for modern cards (Sun & Moon, Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet) from pack to sleeve to submission. The PSA 10 premium is smaller because supply of 10s is higher — economics 101.
  • Over 60% gem rate: The card is easy to get in PSA 10. This compresses the PSA 10 premium significantly, sometimes to the point where the grading fee exceeds the premium. Only worth grading if the absolute PSA 10 price justifies the fee even with abundant supply.

How Population Affects Price

The relationship between population and price is not linear. Understanding the dynamics requires looking at population and demand together:

  • Low pop + high demand = premium. A PSA 10 with fewer than 50 copies and strong character appeal (Charizard, Pikachu, Mewtwo) commands a steep premium. The Skyridge Charizard at PSA 10 (~$39,089) benefits from extremely low graded population combined with massive demand. Each new buyer who wants this specific card competes against the same small pool of sellers.
  • High pop + high demand = stable pricing. Base Set Charizard has thousands of graded copies, but demand is so deep that prices remain strong. Liquidity actually supports pricing stability — buyers and sellers can transact confidently because the market is thick with comparable sales. This is why blue-chip Pokemon cards behave more like liquid financial assets than obscure collectibles.
  • Low pop + low demand = illiquid. Many obscure cards have low PSA 10 populations, but nobody actively seeks them. Low pop alone does not create value — it requires corresponding demand. A PSA 10 of a common trainer card from a forgettable set might have a pop of 3 and still only be worth $30.
  • Rising pop = price pressure. When a card's PSA 10 population increases rapidly (often triggered by a price spike attracting new submissions), the increased supply puts downward pressure on price. This is why timing matters — buying before the submission wave and selling before the new slabs hit the market is the optimal pattern.

Population Trends and Timing

Pop reports are dynamic. A price surge triggers a submission wave, which increases population 2-6 months later (accounting for grading turnaround). This cycle creates predictable patterns that informed investors can exploit:

  • Phase 1: Price discovery. A card's graded price starts rising due to organic demand — perhaps a new YouTube video features it, or collector sentiment shifts toward that era. Pop is stable because submissions take time.
  • Phase 2: Submission wave. Graders notice the price increase and submit raw copies, hoping to capture the higher graded prices. Pop begins growing as early submissions return from PSA. This is the period of maximum opportunity — you can still buy graded copies at pre-surge prices from sellers who are not tracking the trend.
  • Phase 3: Population flood. The bulk of the submission wave returns from PSA. New PSA 10s (and PSA 9s, 8s, etc.) enter the market in quantity. Supply increases visibly on eBay and other platforms.
  • Phase 4: Price correction. Increased supply at the same (or slightly decreased) demand level pushes prices down. The card reaches a new equilibrium that is typically higher than the Phase 1 price but lower than the Phase 2 peak. The spread between the Phase 2 peak and Phase 4 equilibrium represents the overreaction that population floods cause.

Smart investors buy during Phase 1 or early Phase 2 and sell during late Phase 2, before the population increase hits the market. Monitoring pop report changes month-over-month reveals which cards are in which phase.

CGC Population Data

CGC also publishes population reports, and Excellent Cards tracks both grading services. CGC populations are generally lower than PSA because they entered the Pokemon market in 2020 versus PSA's presence since the late 1990s. A low CGC pop does not necessarily mean the card is scarce in graded form — it may simply mean fewer people have submitted to CGC for that particular card.

When evaluating scarcity, consider the total graded copies across both services (and BGS, where relevant) for a more complete picture of supply. A card with 500 PSA copies and 200 CGC copies has 700 total graded copies in the market, regardless of which label they wear.

CGC's gem rate tends to be slightly lower than PSA's for the same card, reflecting their stricter centering standards and sub-grade averaging methodology. A PSA gem rate of 20% might correspond to a CGC 10 rate of 10-15% for the same card.

Using Pop Data for Grading Decisions

Before submitting a card for grading, check the population report and integrate that information into your EV analysis:

  • High gem rate (>40%) + high PSA 10 pop (>500): The market is already saturated with PSA 10s. Your submission adds to an abundant supply. Only submit if the PSA 10 price still exceeds your total cost by a comfortable margin. In this scenario, the PSA 9-to-10 premium is typically small, so missing PSA 10 is not catastrophic to your return.
  • Low gem rate (<10%) + low PSA 10 pop (<50): A PSA 10 would be genuinely scarce and valuable. The upside is enormous if you hit, but the probability is low. Assess your card's condition with extreme rigor — in this category, the difference between an honest assessment and a hopeful one is often hundreds or thousands of dollars.
  • Moderate gem rate + growing pop: The market is finding equilibrium. Submit if your EV analysis is positive, but do not expect the current PSA 10 price to hold indefinitely. Factor in potential price depreciation over the grading turnaround period.
  • Stable pop + declining price: Demand is weakening despite stable supply. Be cautious about new submissions — the card you send today may sell for less when it returns graded in 2-3 months.

Our grading tool incorporates population data into its EV calculations, so you can make these assessments for any card in our database of 106,239 cards.

The Long-Term View

Population can only increase over time (PSA does not un-grade cards, though slabs do get cracked for resubmission, which technically can shift grade distributions). Over a long enough timeline, the total graded population of every card will grow. What matters is the rate of growth relative to demand growth.

Cards where demand grows faster than population — typically iconic characters from sets that are no longer being opened and thus have a finite supply of raw copies — appreciate. Cards where population grows faster than demand — typically modern cards with high gem rates and ongoing pack supply — face price compression.

For WOTC and e-Card era cards, the pool of raw copies available for grading is shrinking every year as the remaining ungraded copies deteriorate in condition or are absorbed into permanent collections. This means population growth for these cards will slow and eventually stop, creating a natural ceiling on supply. This dynamic is the fundamental reason vintage graded cards hold long-term value — and why understanding market trends alongside population data gives you a complete picture of the investment landscape.